A lot can happen in a month in China — or at least in its markets. In the past four weeks, its banking regulator has launched a “regulatory windstorm” while the central bank has made the first move to ease capital controls, providing much needed liquidity to the offshore renminbi market.
在中國(guó)，一個(gè)月可以發(fā)生許多事情，至少在其市場(chǎng)上如此。在過去4周里，中國(guó)銀行業(yè)監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)掀起了“監(jiān)管風(fēng)暴”，中國(guó)央行也邁出了放松資本管制的第一步，向離岸人民幣市場(chǎng)提供亟需的流動(dòng)性。
Meanwhile, BlackRock has for the first time publicly backed the inclusion of onshore stocks in MSCI’s indices, and Chinese officials have even criticised dividend-dodging companies, dubbed “iron cockerels”, and promised extra scrutiny. Some, it noted, have not paid out a penny in 20-plus years of listed existence.
與此同時(shí)，貝萊德(BlackRock)首次公開支持將中國(guó)內(nèi)地股票納入MSCI明晟的指數(shù)，而中國(guó)官員甚至對(duì)不分紅的上市公司（所謂的“鐵公雞”）提出批評(píng)，承諾加強(qiáng)審查。監(jiān)管部門指出，一些公司上市20多年來沒有分過紅。
With a very optimistic squint, one might read the collected actions as signs of an investor-friendly, western-style package of reforms. That would be misleading. But they do represent the ongoing process of developing China’s markets and linking them to the international system — one small tweak or reform at a time. For international investors, the easing of capital controls is the most eye-catching change, reflecting their ability to withdraw funds invested — a key concern cited last year by MSCI when it decided A-shares were not yet fit for inclusion.
從非常樂觀的角度來看，人們可能將這些集體行動(dòng)解讀為中國(guó)將會(huì)推出對(duì)投資者友好、西方式改革方案的跡象。這樣想就錯(cuò)了。但這些行動(dòng)的確代表著中國(guó)持續(xù)發(fā)展國(guó)內(nèi)市場(chǎng)、并與國(guó)際體系接軌的努力——每次調(diào)整或改革一點(diǎn)點(diǎn)。對(duì)國(guó)際投資者來說，放松資本管制是最吸引眼球的改變，意味著他們能夠撤回投資資金——這是去年MSCI明晟在認(rèn)定A股仍不符合納入標(biāo)準(zhǔn)時(shí)援引的一個(gè)關(guān)鍵顧慮。
Essentially, Beijing has stepped back from a one-out one-in policy, introduced earlier this year, when outgoing cross-border payments in renminbi had to be at least matched by inflows. Given it is easier to convert renminbi offshore, the channel was an important conduit for outflows. It was also a key source of liquidity in the offshore renminbi market, centred in Hong Kong.
從根本上說，中國(guó)廢止了今年早些時(shí)候推出的“一出一進(jìn)”政策，當(dāng)時(shí)外流的跨境人民幣支付至少要和流入相當(dāng)。鑒于境外更容易兌換人民幣，該渠道是資本外流的重要管道。它還是以香港為核心的離岸人民幣市場(chǎng)的流動(dòng)性的關(guān)鍵來源。
“While regulators have no intention of stopping genuine trade, increased scrutiny of cross-border [activity] has delayed transactions,” said Nathan Chow at DBS.
星展銀行(DBS)的周洪禮(Nathan Chow)表示：“盡管監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)無(wú)意阻止真正的交易，但加大審查跨境（活動(dòng)）還是導(dǎo)致了交易延遲�！�
As of February, renminbi deposits in Hong Kong were half their Rmb1tn ($145bn) peak reached in December 2014. Renminbi payments suffered too: data showed just 16.7 per cent of China’s goods trade was settled in the currency in February, down from 24 per cent a year earlier.
截止今年2月，香港人民幣存款僅為2014年12月達(dá)到的1萬(wàn)億元人民幣（合1450億美元）峰值水平的一半。人民幣支付也受到影響：數(shù)據(jù)顯示，今年2月中國(guó)只有16.7%的商品貿(mào)易用人民幣結(jié)算，而一年前的比例是24%。
“It is too early to say this is a turning point [but] we believe that this at least shows that China is still keen to push forward with renminbi internationalisation,” said Hao Zhou, strategist at Commerzbank.
德國(guó)商業(yè)銀行(Commerzbank)的策略師周浩表示：“現(xiàn)在說這是一個(gè)轉(zhuǎn)折點(diǎn)為時(shí)尚早，（但）我們相信，這至少表明中國(guó)仍有積極意愿推動(dòng)人民幣國(guó)際化�！�
The stream of orders, largely from the China Banking Regulatory Commission, has taken some by surprise. While some have focused on the shadow banking sector and wealth management products, others have concentrated on the interbank market, underlining Beijing’s focus this year on deleveraging and the role that this kind of regulatory tightening can play.
主要由中國(guó)銀監(jiān)會(huì)(CBRC)發(fā)出的一系列文件讓一些人吃了一驚。一些文件聚焦于影子銀行領(lǐng)域和理財(cái)產(chǎn)品，還有一些則關(guān)注銀行間市場(chǎng)，凸顯出中國(guó)政府今年聚焦于去杠桿化以及這種監(jiān)管收緊可以發(fā)揮的作用。
One move from China’s central clearing agency raised the standards for collateral permitted in exchange-traded repo transactions. This is expected to increase costs for lower rated bonds — which many analysts think is long overdue.
中國(guó)證券登記結(jié)算有限責(zé)任公司出臺(tái)的新規(guī)，提高了交易所交易的債券回購(gòu)的質(zhì)押標(biāo)準(zhǔn)。預(yù)計(jì)這將會(huì)增加較低評(píng)級(jí)債券的成本——許多分析師認(rèn)為早該如此。
The most straightforward of all the recent changes would be MSCI’s inclusion of mainland A-shares in its global indices, should it go ahead. A decision from the index provider is due in June, and BlackRock’s public support for inclusion is a powerful endorsement from the world’s largest fund manager. The importance of MSCI inclusion is not only sheer weight of money that follows its indices, although at $1.5tn for its benchmark Emerging Markets one, these are considerable. The real significance is that a decision in favour would make MSCI the first major index provider to commit directly to include mainland assets.
在最近的所有改變中，最明確的將是如果MSCI明晟同意，A股將會(huì)被納入其全球指數(shù)。這家指數(shù)提供商定于今年6月作出決定，全球最大基金公司貝萊德公開支持納入A股，這提供了有力背書。MSCI明晟納入A股的重要意義不僅僅在于大量追蹤其指數(shù)的資金——盡管確實(shí)有1.5萬(wàn)億美元追蹤其基準(zhǔn)的新興市場(chǎng)指數(shù)，這是相當(dāng)大的數(shù)目。真正的意義在于，納入A股的決定將讓MSCI明晟成為首個(gè)直接承諾納入內(nèi)地資產(chǎn)的主要指數(shù)提供商。
Others such as rival FTSE Russell and, in the bond markets, Bloomberg have opted for a “parallel universe” approach where they maintain mainland-free indices alongside new ones to give their clients the choice. MSCI’s plan, to include only A-shares tradeable through the Stock Connect linking Hong Kong through the mainland bourses, in theory also avoids a commitment to the mainland, as investors do not need China presence to trade.
其他與MSCI明晟競(jìng)爭(zhēng)的指數(shù)提供商，比如富時(shí)羅素(FTSE Russell)以及債券市場(chǎng)上的彭博(Bloomberg)，選擇了“平行宇宙”做法，同時(shí)提供不納入A股的指數(shù)與納入A股的新指數(shù)，供客戶自己選擇。MSCI明晟提出的只納入能夠在內(nèi)地與香港股市互聯(lián)互通機(jī)制(Stock Connect)下交易的A股股票的計(jì)劃，在理論上也避免了資金進(jìn)入內(nèi)地市場(chǎng)的問題，投資者不需要進(jìn)入中國(guó)內(nèi)地市場(chǎng)交易。
This is MSCI’s fourth proposal for including A-shares in as many years. Expect the usual heated debate about the state of China’s markets as its decision in June nears. Not all the issues that derailed inclusion have been addressed by any means. But still the reform process has moved ahead, however piecemeal. The past month’s tweaks and nudges add up to something that starts to looks like progress.
這是MSCI明晟這么多年來第四次提議納入A股。距離該公司作決定的時(shí)間（6月）越來越近，料想人們將又一次像往常一樣圍繞中國(guó)的市場(chǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)地位展開熱議。中國(guó)并未不惜代價(jià)地解決所有阻礙A股納入的問題。但改革確實(shí)前進(jìn)了，無(wú)論步伐多么細(xì)碎。過去一個(gè)月的調(diào)整和努力匯聚在一起，讓進(jìn)步初具雛形。
